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Zoellick sounds caution over rebound
Barack Obama’s first trip to Asia as US president could
almost have been designed to underline the dramatic shift of economic power from
west to east that has been accelerated by the global financial
crisis.
Mr Obama leaves economically depressed Washington
for ①a region recovering so fast that Robert Zoellick，the World Bank
president，thought it necessary yesterday to warn its central banks to start
thinking about how to choke off asset bubbles.
Mr Zoellick
said on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in
Singapore：“Traditionally the central banks in east Asia will follow the [US]
Federal Reserve because if they ②raise interest rates [independently]，that will
draw capital and appreciate their currencies.
“In the US
and Europe，because things are still relatively weak，I don’t see any likely
inflationary effects at this stage. In east Asia，if you start to get a strong
rebound in growth and you’ve got a lot of liquidity，there is a question of
whether you start to face asset bubbles，”he said.
Mr
Zoellick drew attention to Australia’s decision to raise interest rates last
week for the second time in a month，noting that its economy was“very linked”to
east Asia，but said central banks should consider administrative action to
restrict credit as well as the timing of interest rate
rises.
The World Bank president’s warning followed a
dramatic ③about-face on Asia’s growth prospects by the International Monetary
Fund，which was clearly taken by surprise by the region’s strong performance in
the past six months.
In a big upgrade，the IMF more than
doubled its forecast for Asian economic growth this year to 2.8 per cent and
raised its prediction for 2010 to 5.8 per cent. The World Bank upped the ante
further last week，forecasting growth of 7.8 per cent for east Asia and the
Pacific next year.
That reading was buttressed yesterday
by fresh figures from Japan，South Korea and China，by far the world’s best
performing big economy，which was already on course for economic growth of at
least 8 per cent this year.
Beijing said industrial output
rose in October at the fastest pace since March，while retail sales and fixed
investment also rose sharply. In South Korea，unemployment fell from 3.6 per cent
in September to 3.4 per cent in October，a nine-month low，as transport and
telecommunications companies and banks boosted
recruitment.
Record profits at the conglomerates that
dominate South Korea’s economy are bringing rosy forecasts. Yoon Jeung-hyun，the
finance minister，has said the economy might expand this year，reversing an
earlier prediction. Some private sector forecasters are even more bullish.
ING，the Dutch bank，thinks gross domestic product will rise 5.3 per cent next
year，up from its forecast of 0.1 per cent this year.
Even
in Japan，a growth ④laggard，core machinery orders，excluding volatile
purchases，grew twice as fast as expected in September，said the cabinet
office.
The Japanese numbers attracted rare praise from
the US. Tim Geithner，the Treasury secretary，said in Tokyo that attempts to boost
domestic demand by the new government of Yukio Hatoyama were“very
encouraging”for the world economy.
Mr Obama is expected to
reiterate that message，⑤in line with the agreement by the Group of 20 economies
that countries running big trade surpluses need to boost domestic consumption to
reduce reliance on exports to the west，while countries running big deficits need
to save more and consume less.
譯文梗概
佐利克：東亞小心泡沫
巴拉克·奧巴馬(BarackObama)就任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)以來(lái)的首次亞洲之行，幾乎就是為了彰顯全球經(jīng)濟(jì)權(quán)力從西方向東方的戲劇性轉(zhuǎn)移——此輪全球金融危機(jī)加速了轉(zhuǎn)移的步伐。
奧巴馬將從經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的華盛頓出發(fā)，前往一個(gè)復(fù)蘇極其迅速的地區(qū)——其速度之快，使得世界銀行(WorldBank)行長(zhǎng)羅伯特·佐利克(RobertZoellick)認(rèn)為，有必要向一些央行提出警告，讓它們開始考慮如何抑制資產(chǎn)泡沫的問(wèn)題。
佐利克表示：“東亞的銀行傳統(tǒng)上會(huì)追隨美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)，因?yàn)槿绻鼈?獨(dú)自)提高利率，將會(huì)吸引資本流入，從而導(dǎo)致其本幣升值。”他說(shuō)：“在美國(guó)和歐洲，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)仍相對(duì)疲弱，當(dāng)前階段我沒(méi)有看到任何潛在的通脹效應(yīng)。在東亞，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)開始強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，又加上擁有大量流動(dòng)性，那么你就存在是否已經(jīng)開始面臨資產(chǎn)泡沫這個(gè)問(wèn)題。”
佐利克發(fā)出上述警告之前，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)大幅改變了其對(duì)亞洲增長(zhǎng)前景的預(yù)測(cè)。亞洲地區(qū)過(guò)去6個(gè)月的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)，顯然令I(lǐng)MF感到吃驚。
IMF將今年亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期上調(diào)了逾一倍，至2.8%，并將明年的預(yù)期調(diào)高至5.8%。世界銀行上周則更進(jìn)一步，預(yù)測(cè)東亞及太平洋地區(qū)明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將達(dá)到7.8%。
來(lái)自日本、韓國(guó)和中國(guó)的最新經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為上述預(yù)測(cè)提供了支撐。中國(guó)是迄今全球表現(xiàn)最好的大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體——正朝著今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)至少8%的目標(biāo)挺進(jìn)。
預(yù)計(jì)奧巴馬會(huì)重申以下信息：擁有巨額貿(mào)易順差的國(guó)家需要推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)，以減輕對(duì)西方的依賴；而擁有巨額貿(mào)易逆差的國(guó)家則需要增加儲(chǔ)蓄，減少消費(fèi)。
（文章來(lái)源：FT中文網(wǎng)）
點(diǎn)評(píng)
①a region recovering so fast
that結(jié)構(gòu)中，recovering是現(xiàn)在分詞，相當(dāng)于一個(gè)定語(yǔ)從句，a region that/which is
recovering…；so+adj.+that結(jié)構(gòu)，意為“如此…以至于…”用來(lái)引出后面的結(jié)果狀語(yǔ)從句。assetbubbles意為“資產(chǎn)泡沫”。
②raise和appreciate都能用來(lái)表示“增加，增值”的意思，表示提高利率、成本、薪金等通常用raise，而“升值貨幣”則用appreciate更為地道，其名詞形式是appreciation，反義詞是depreciation，意為貶值。
③about-face，主要用于軍事語(yǔ)境中，a turn made so as to face the
opposite direction，即向后轉(zhuǎn)，在這里意為a complete change of opinion or policy，即觀點(diǎn)的大幅轉(zhuǎn)變。
④laggard，“落后的”，其動(dòng)詞形式是lag，可用來(lái)表示經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)“滯后”，與上一段中的expand詞義相反。
⑤in line with為“與…一致”的意思，相當(dāng)于in accordance with。 |